Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
