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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or merely the greatest shock.

However the current race is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners declining and recent also-rans rising collectively. In an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a normal season!

Where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a given following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still